ROI Attribution Models: Which One Works Best for the Nigerian Market?
Marketers today in Nigeria face a familiar, yet evolving challenge: they’re investing in digital campaigns, social media, mobile ads, offline channels and asking: Which of these touchpoints actually delivers return on investment (ROI)? The answer lies in attribution models, the frameworks that allocate credit for conversions across marketing touchpoints. With the Nigerian market’s unique blend of digital growth, mobile-first behaviour, offline interaction and often incomplete tracking infrastructure, choosing the right model matters more than ever.
In this guide we’ll:
- Explain the common attribution models (first-touch, last-touch, multi-touch)
- Compare their pros, cons and applicability in Nigeria
- Offer recommendations for Nigerian CMOs to choose and adapt a model for accuracy and growth
The Core Attribution Models
First-Touch (Single-Touch) Attribution
In this model, 100% of the credit for a conversion is assigned to the first touchpoint a customer interacts with.
Pros:
- This is simple to implement
- Good for measuring early-funnel awareness campaigns
Cons:
- Ignores everything that happens after the first touch
- Over-values the top of funnel and under-values conversion or activation touchpoints
Last-Touch (Single-Touch) Attribution
Here, 100% of the credit is given to the last touchpoint before conversion.
Pros:
- Very easy to measure and understand
- Highlights what “closed” the deal
Cons:
- Neglects supporting touchpoints (awareness, nurture)
- Risks bias toward lower‐cost, late‐stage channels
Multi-Touch Attribution
This model attempts to capture multiple touchpoints across the funnel and distribute credit accordingly. Common variants include linear, time-decay, U-shaped (position-based), W-shaped, and data-driven models.
Pros:
- More holistic view of customer journey
- Better for complex funnels and multiple channels
Cons:
- Requires more reliable data, tagging, tracking infrastructure
- Can be more complex to implement and explain to stakeholders
Which Model Fits the Nigerian Market?
Nigeria presents some unique characteristics for marketing attribution: high mobile penetration, multiple offline-to-online interactions, less consistent data tracking (due to device sharing, mobile networks, fragmented UTM usage), and often mixed channel journeys (social, WhatsApp, field sales, physical retail outlets). Given this backdrop, here’s how the models stack up.
First-Touch: When it Works
- If your campaign is clearly focused on awareness (e.g., new brand launch, new product introduction).
- When your tracking infrastructure is limited and you simply need a directional indicator of “which channel brought the customer first”.
However, because it ignores downstream engagement, it’s risky to use as your sole metric in Nigeria. The customer might discover via one channel but convert after several other interactions offline or via WhatsApp.
Last-Touch: When it Works
- Useful when you’re focused strictly on conversion or direct response campaigns (e.g., an e-commerce flash sale, app install campaign).
- Easier to implement and explain with limited data infrastructure.
However, in Nigeria you must be aware of offline touchpoints (field agents, physical stores, mobile money kiosks) that don’t always get tracked. Using last-touch alone may over-credit digital, under-credit offline or hybrid channels.
Multi-Touch: The Stronger Long-Term Fit
Given the mixed digital + offline nature of many Nigerian customer journeys, multi-touch attribution offers the most realistic framework, if implemented well.
Recommended approach for Nigeria:
- Start with a simplified multi-touch model such as a U-shaped (e.g., 40% first touch, 40% last touch, 20% split across middle touches) or Linear (equal credit) to reflect multiple interactions.
- Incorporate offline-to-online conversions: track when a digital ad leads to a field-sales visit, mobile money deposit after WhatsApp enquiry, or store-walk in.
- Use micro-conversions and touchpoints common in Nigeria: WhatsApp engagement, SMS campaign, influencer content, ad click, field agent mention.
- Consider data-driven attribution when you have enough scale and data accuracy to allocate fractional credit algorithmically.
Practical Steps for Nigerian CMOs
In Nigeria’s dynamic marketing environment, choosing the right attribution model is more than a technical exercise, it’s a strategic decision. The model you pick influences budgeting, channel prioritisation, creative strategy, and ultimately, your ROI. Given Nigeria’s mobile-first behavior, offline interactions and evolving data infrastructure, a multi-touch model, implemented carefully, offers the best long-term fit. Start with a simpler model, build your tracking strength, and evolve as your data matures.
Ready to implement attribution that truly reflects your Nigerian market reality? Book a free consultation with Intense to help you map your touchpoints, select the right model, and link every Naira of marketing spend to measurable growth.
