How to Reverse-Engineer Your Revenue Target into an MQL Goal
Most marketing teams start in the wrong place. They lock onto an MQL target, more names in the database, more forms filled, more “leads” without asking the one question that really matters: Will these leads actually deliver revenue? At first, it feels like progress. Dashboards light up, campaign metrics look impressive, and the funnel seems full. But when it’s time to connect those numbers to revenue, the story falls apart.
The cost? Wasted spend. Friction with sales. An endless cycle of defending marketing’s value instead of proving it. CMOs end up playing a reactive game, explaining activity rather than leading strategy.
But what if you flipped that cycle on its head? What if marketing stopped chasing MQLs for their own sake and started tying every effort directly to the revenue number the business cares about most? In this guide, we’ll show you exactly how to reverse-engineer your revenue target into a clear, actionable MQL goal, so you can stop playing defense and start leading growth with confidence.
Step 1: Define Your Revenue Target and Average Deal Size
Every journey starts with the destination. For CMOs, the destination isn’t impressions or MQLs, it’s revenue.
- Set Your Revenue Goal. Define your revenue target for the period in question (quarter or year). For example: $1,000,000 in new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).
- Know Your Average Deal Value (ACV). How much revenue does each closed deal contribute? For SaaS, this might be the annual subscription value. For enterprise B2B, it could be multi-year contracts. Use historical data to calculate an average or weighted average deal size.
Formula:
Deals Needed = Revenue Target ÷ Average Deal Value
Example: If your revenue target is $1,000,000 and your average deal value is $100,000, you’ll need:
$1,000,000 ÷ $100,000 = 10 closed deals.
Step 2: Translate Deals into Pipeline Needed
Revenue doesn’t appear magically from marketing campaigns. It flows through a funnel, with each stage narrowing the opportunity pool. The next step is to calculate how much pipeline is required to produce those closed deals.
- Know Your Win Rate. What percentage of opportunities result in closed deals? If your sales team closes 1 in 4 opportunities, your win rate is 25%.
- Apply the Win Rate.
Formula:
Opportunities Needed = Deals Needed ÷ Win Rate
Example: With 10 deals needed and a 25% win rate:
10 ÷ 0.25 = 40 opportunities required.
- Pipeline Revenue Method (optional). Alternatively, calculate the pipeline revenue required:
Pipeline Revenue = Revenue Target ÷ Win Rate
Then divide by average deal value. Both methods land at the same outcome.
At this point, we’ve moved from abstract revenue targets to a very real number: 40 qualified opportunities in pipeline.
Step 3: Reverse-Engineer MQLs from Pipeline
Opportunities don’t appear from thin air. They start as leads nurtured into MQLs and converted into SQLs. This is where marketing takes center stage.
- Identify Your Conversion Rates. Pull historical data:
- MQL → SQL conversion rate (e.g., 20%)
- SQL → Opportunity conversion rate (if applicable)
- Work Backwards to MQLs.
Formula:
MQLs Needed = Opportunities Needed ÷ (MQL → SQL conversion rate)
Example: If 40 opportunities are required and your MQL → SQL conversion rate is 20%:
40 ÷ 0.20 = 200 MQLs required.
- Full Funnel Formula. If you want to combine the entire journey into a single line:
MQLs = Revenue Target ÷ (Average Deal × Win Rate × MQL → SQL Conversion)
This equation crystallises the power of reverse-engineering. It connects every marketing activity directly to revenue.
Step 4: Put It All Together – An Example in Action
Imagine you’re a SaaS CMO with the following:
- Revenue Target: $5,000,000 ARR
- Average Deal Value: $50,000
- Win Rate: 20%
- MQL → SQL conversion: 25%
Step 1: Deals Needed
$5,000,000 ÷ $50,000 = 100 deals
Step 2: Opportunities Needed
100 ÷ 0.20 = 500 opportunities
Step 3: MQLs Needed
500 ÷ 0.25 = 2,000 MQLs
The Bottom Line: To hit $5M ARR, you need 2,000 high-quality MQLs this year.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Even good CMOs stumble when setting MQL goals from revenue. Here are the most common pitfalls:
1. Relying on Outdated or Optimistic Assumptions
Conversion rates are not static. The market changes, your product evolves, and your competitors adapt. If you’re using last year’s MQL-to-Opportunity conversion rate without validating it against the latest data, you are steering by an outdated map. Always audit your numbers quarterly, if not monthly. Are you seeing a decline in conversions from a specific channel? Is a new campaign performing better than expected? Your model must be a reflection of your business, not a record of outdated assumptions.
2. Ignoring Funnel Leakage
A funnel isn’t a perfect pipe; it’s more like a sieve. Leads leak out at every stage from MQL to SAL, to SQL, to closed-won. If you calculate exact numbers without building in a buffer or “headroom,” you’re setting yourself up for a shortfall. Don’t just ask what’s required; ask what’s required plus a realistic cushion for natural attrition. This isn’t padding your numbers; it’s a strategic hedge against the unpredictable nature of B2B sales cycles.
3. Prioritising Volume Over Quality
This is perhaps the most dangerous mistake. A thousand MQLs that don’t fit your Ideal Customer Profile (ICP) are a thousand times worse than 100 that do. They waste your sales team’s time, create friction between marketing and sales, and ultimately lead to a lower win rate. When building your model, remember that quality always beats quantity. Define MQLs with sales so they represent genuine buying intent and a strong fit, not just a high activity score.
4. Misaligned Definitions
Does your sales team truly see MQLs the same way you do? If marketing defines an MQL as “anyone who downloads an eBook,” but sales only cares about “prospects who have requested a demo,” you will have a constant misalignment. Before you even run the numbers, sit down with your sales leader and agree on a shared, written definition for every stage of the funnel. This is the foundation of a healthy, productive partnership.
5. Forgetting to Adjust
Markets move. Competitors shift strategy. Products evolve. Win rates rise and fall. If you lock in your assumptions once a year and never revisit them, your plan will drift further and further from reality. A static model in a dynamic market is a liability. Instead, treat your MQL-to-revenue model as a performance-driven forecast. Revisit it quarterly, compare actuals to assumptions, and recalibrate as needed. Agility is what keeps your plan connected to outcomes.
The Revenue Roadmap, Not a Marketing Target
Reverse-engineering revenue into MQLs is more than math; it’s a mindset shift. It’s the move from chasing activity to owning outcomes. By reverse-engineering your revenue goal, you’ve done more than just create a marketing target, you’ve created the revenue roadmap for your entire go-to-market team. The MQL number is no longer just “marketing’s job.” It’s a unified framework that sales leaders understand, finance can forecast, and executives can trust. This level of clarity removes friction, ends the blame game, and empowers your team to work from a unified growth model. It transforms your marketing team from a department that delivers leads into a strategic partner that delivers revenue, with a clear plan that everyone understands. The question is no longer, “Did marketing hit its goal?” The conversation becomes, “Are we all on track to execute the plan?”
Path Forward
If you’re ready to move from defending budgets to forecasting revenue with confidence, it starts here. Revisit your funnel metrics. Reverse-engineer your revenue target. Align with sales. And set MQL goals that aren’t arbitrary, but inevitable.
This is the future of marketing leadership, and you don’t have to build it in isolation. The Growth Authority community is designed for you. Created for marketing leaders, including CMOs, who are redefining their role as the engine of predictable growth, this community gives you access to the precise tools, resources, and playbooks that simplify the entire revenue growth process.
Join the Growth Authority community today – https://growthauthority.co.uk/
